By John Vlahakis

The U.S. is not the only country facing a drought that is impacting its agricultural yields.  A hot dry summer is going to be impacting one of your favorite culinary treats – chocolate.  The Ivory Coast is the number one cocoa grower in the world, and a hot dry summer there has already raised the price of cocoa beans by 13% since January.  The heat and lack of rain in the Ivory Coast, the No. 1 cocoa grower, already has put a dent in supply forecasts.  Commodity traders, food companies and industry officials are now concerned that the situation could worsen if a global weather phenomenon known as El Niño crops up, potentially leading to even higher cocoa prices that could translate into tighter margins and more price markups on chocolate.  The International Cocoa Organization, a trade group, says El Niño reduces global production by an average of 2.4% in seasons where the weather phenomenon occurs. In such circumstances, output in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two top producers, declines by an average of 2% and 1.7%, respectively.  Cocoa demand is expected to outstrip production by 47,399 tons this year, according to the ICCO.  The industry group says the gap will widen if the weather continues to worsen in West Africa.  Chocolate sellers in the U.S. have been raising prices since March, and if the drought continues that delicacy will end up costing even more.  You just may want to stock up now.

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