Guessing On All Electrics

By John Vlahakis

So how well can you see into the future? The automotive industries, primarily those manufacturers that plan on rolling out all electric vehicles, are trying to ascertain the future demand for these cars. Deloitte Consulting released a consumer survey on electric and hybrid vehicles, and in that survey they delivered modest forecasts on demand. They did cite that cost, range, and infrastructure had an impact on their forecast. But, according to Deloitte, all electric, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will become anywhere between 2 percent and 5.6 percent of the U.s. market by 2020. They estimate that between 285,000 and 840,000 units will be sold. Deloitte cited three other independent forecasts from Credit Suisse, Citi, and the Traffic Safety Administration. Credit Suisse pegs all electric vehicles, like the upcoming Nissan Leaf, to be 335,000 sold, Citi forecasts more than a million, while the Traffic Safety Administration places all electrics at 750,000 by 2020. How fast all electric vehicles capture market share depends on how quickly the infrastructure can be put into place by private industry and government. Charging stations will be needed in public places and the private sector to motivate people to adopt this new means of transportation. Government incentives, the cost of gasoline, and perhaps new environmental restrictions will also impact all electric acceptance. Deloitte did note that there are at least 1 million people in the U.S. who are motivated to buy an all-electric vehicle. These “early adopters” are motivated to switch by their desire to reduce oil imports and our dependency on fossil fuels, according to Deloitte’s survey. For that group, price, range and familiarity with the technology are some clear concerns that automakers need to expect. Seventy-three percent of people surveyed said they expect to pay less than $35,000 and 55 percent said less than $30,000. The next few years should be interesting, as these cars make their way to market. Hopefully, they will succeed in the long term.